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One year ago at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, the Web-enabled refrigerator came into its own. This week at CES, there will be an upgrade.
Even though home networking is the business of the future (and always might be just that), the hype continues - spurred now by the expectation that broadband connections and residential gateways will speed up the adoption of home area networks (HANs).
Meanwhile, fundamental rules for the home networking "revolution" still are being thrashed out. (By the way, why is it always a "revolution" to the promoters even though there's no groundswell demanding an overthrow of the existing system - which in this case is a satisfactory standalone environment?)
HANs may someday play a critical part in the last 10 meters of the digital delivery process. It's nice to believe the robust predictions, such as Parks Associates' forecast that HANs will grow four-fold from a $1.4 billion business last year to $5.6 billion by 2004.
But is this optimism valid in today's shaky environment? Because these residential gateways rely on the deployment of high-speed technology, the current stutter in the digital subscriber line sector will have long-lasting ripple effects on HAN installation. On a larger scale, an overall economic slowdown may slash new home construction, a prime target for home networks, and prompt existing homeowners to postpone HAN set-ups.
Add to this the looming plight of consumer electronics retailers. They are desperate for a hot new product, especially given their faltering sales of conventional hardware, including PCs and TV sets. But home networking will be a complicated sale - and one that may require installation pacts with a variety of service providers within a region. That's a complex formula for dealers, who may choose to concentrate for now on equipment that takes less selling effort, such as DVD.
Meanwhile, the HAN industry itself still is sorting out the technical and economic details of its various standardization efforts. The newly formed Home Internet Alliance takes its place among a roster of standards-setting and promotional groups claiming to advance the cause of home networking. Over the last few years, the Home Phoneline Networking Alliance, Home RF Alliance and other ad hoc groups have been skirmishing in their efforts to assure their members a role in the home networking world. To be sure, the Federal Communications Commission opened a big door this autumn with its rulemaking on wireless home networks - but that process still is a work in progress, further suggesting a slow ramp-up for widespread HAN installation.
Nonetheless, home networking hopefuls are even more numerous at this week's Consumer Electronics Show than they were at last month's Western Cable Show. Many of the same infrastructure companies will be on hand, along with their allies who make products such as the aforementioned Web-enabled refrigerator. Recognizing that home networking is this year's buzzword of choice, traditional consumer electronics companies are dubbing their devices part of the HAN plan - even if they don't have a fire-wire or similar connector port which may (or may not) be part of some eventual industry standard.
Deal-making still is at the core of much HAN activity - as infrastructure and middleware companies line up alliances for their home networking forays. For example, uCentric Systems, which quietly debuted at the cable show, recently partnered with Vicinium Systems and Speakeasy.net. The Vicinium relationship will let uCentric's add security, home control plus device and energy management services to its package of communications, information and entertainment distribution. Speakeasy.net, an Internet Service Provider, will distribute uCentric's home networking system - a possible harbinger of future pacts for end-to-end distribution.
Indeed, deals like these are reminders of the hurdles still facing HAN providers. The long-term big vision for home networking (as described in Karen Brown's cover story last month) is a digital connection that links all PCs, television sets, stereos and other appliances, allowing device-independent access to an array of home services.
The near-term reality, however, involves limited links between PCs and peripherals. For broadband providers, the good news is that this allows multiple PCs to hook up to a cable modem or DSL connection. Intel and IBM, among others, already have plowed into this sector, to connect home computing devices.
For example, at the Western Cable Show, Jungo Software Technologies unveiled its OpenRG residential gateway software infrastructure, working through a new Texas Instruments Bluetooth-enabled cable modem. That's a powerful combination of new technology - and it's also the kind of overwhelming complexity that is certain to scare off all but the hardiest of home networking adventurers.
Home networking also facilitates multi-viewer (multi-set) access to a digital TV source. Indeed, much of what now passes for "home networking" involves high-end home theater installations or private networks around newly constructed houses.
The recent boom times allowed high-tech-savvy families to install Category 5 wiring in their homes, but apparently not everyone has figured out what to do with the great new capacity. Moreover, the term "home networking" is being bandied about so casually that start-up Stream Machine characterizes itself as a home networking company based on its digital video technology that enables personal video recording (PVR) capabilities of streaming media content.
As was evident at CES and other venues in 2000, the reach of broadband services and Internet capacity into the home will change the way that we use the electric and electronic tools that we have been acquiring. What I liked about the Web-enabled refrigerator was that its gimmick finally had a marginally useful purpose. If the scanner sensed that the only remaining items on its shelves were beer, peanut butter and chicken broth, then the companion Web site connection identified a meal and menu that could be prepared from those items.
The presence of Cisco, Panasonic, Sears, Sun Microsystems and Motorola, Frigidaire among others also boosts expectations that the new HAN plan is not merely an effort for geeks to invade the kitchen and bedroom - much as they have taken control of the living room and den. Of course, "Cisco" is not exactly a household name, but the target early adopters understand what the company empowers.
For the hundreds of HAN hopefuls, the objective now is to convince millions of home electronics users that they want - and can afford - what home networking can deliver.
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