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Rollouts of wireless phones based on dual-mode GSM and Global Packet Radio Service (GPRS) technology this year in Europe and North America will be slowed by a handset shortage as manufacturers struggle to overcome a variety of technical problems, industry observers say.
A report from EMC World Cellular Database also says considerable development work remains on third-generation chipsets and batteries that can support always-on Web browsing applications. That will have a "severe impact on the dates for planned 3G launches," the EMC report states.
"The whole issue is, what will the handsets be able to deliver? What you have with all the (generation) 2.5 technology, particularly as it relates to GSM, is that they're trying to do more than the GSM interface was designed to do," says Herschel Shosteck, a Wheaton, Md., industry consultant and frequent 3G critic.
To be sure, GPRS devices are starting to appear. Mitsubishi Electric Corp.'s Trium introduced its Mondo mobile device that integrates a GPRS/GSM phone with personal organizer and Microsoft Corp.'s Pocket PC operating system this month and targets April commercial availability, initially in Britain.
Schaumberg, Ill.-based Motorola Inc. is shipping its Timeport G60 phone to European network operators, although they're not being sold to users yet, says Sue Frederick, Motorola spokeswoman.
Nokia Inc., the largest cell phone maker, hasn't shipped its GPRS units yet, but is on track to deploy its phones in Europe during the first half of 2001 and in the Americas in the second half. Problems with delays in receiving components last year have "clearly improved now," says spokeswoman Cherie Gary.
Plans to use interim EDGE technology in conjunction with TDMA to boost bandwidth "are looking less likely to proceed" since AT&T Wireless abandoned EDGE in favor of building a GSM overlay to its networks before moving to GPRS capability and eventually wideband-CDMA. As such, no TDMA/EDGE consumer devices currently are planned, EMC says.
Ultimately, some 2.5G technologies will become orphans, as manufacturers and network operators recognize that their benefit isn't enough to warrant the money needed to make them viable, Shosteck says.
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