Always On:
Where Did DTV Go?
By Gary Arlen
Contributing Skepthusiast
from the May 21, 2001 issue of Broadband Week
Except for an ersatz "DTV Store" and the convoluted diktats about the digital television rollout schedule, you could have roamed around last month's NAB convention immune from the DTV assault that had been a centerpiece of that event for the past few years. Even as the terrestrial DTV transition deadline clicks closer (including a mid-2002 universal start-up target), the broadcast industry and its suppliers are preparing to ignore the government mandate.
Despite the friendly finger-wagging of FCC chairman Michael Powell, who points out that Congress controls the transition deadline, and notwithstanding transmitter and production equipment-makers efforts to sell digital TV hardware, the nation's broadcasters seem numb to the DTV imperative. As a result, the DTV hype that overwhelmed previous conventions was largely invisible this year.
Of course, so were broadcasters at the convention that now officially uses only the initials "NAB." By some reckoning, only about 15 percent of the attendees at the event were from TV stations or networks. (Many of the latter were there surreptitiously since 3 of the big 4 networks have abandoned the National Association of Broadcasters, largely over the ownership cap controversy.) Some of the multimedia vendors in the Sands Expo Center didn't even know that traditional broadcasting hardware was on display at another exhibit hall in Las Vegas.
When NAB set up the two-venue format four years ago, I described it as two separate shows that were two miles and 50 years apart. The Las Vegas Convention Center still features state-of-the-art equipment, but it is aimed at broadcasters who abide by the business model of one-channel, one-way, ad-supported media. Over at the Sands, the multimedia, streaming, computer-based vendors offer a glimpse of TV's diverse future. For the sake of gross generalities, let's call the separate populations "suits" and "ponytails" respectively.
This year for the first time, the "suits" (now often attired in corporate casual outfits) headed over to the Sands en masse. The "ponytails" never ventured in the other direction.
But this is not just about the people and places. The atmosphere itself reflected the shifting winds of a converging industry. Wracked by the advertising slowdown, viewership decline and station consolidation, broadcasters are loath to invest in technology that won't generate new revenue sources.
Hence, the DTV ennui.
Of course, the DTV delay has ripple effects on other broadband opportunities that some broadcasters could exploit. Without DTV stations, the data broadcasting business is stymied. It already has claimed the life of Geocast (although other factors were involved in that datacasting venture's demise). iBlast, and the moribund "Cooperative" of digital broadcast licensees also are treading water without widespread DTV station start-ups.
Meanwhile, the Dotcast Digital Network, a broadband datacasting service optimized for existing analog stations, is picking up some traction. Discreetly demonstrating its tactics from a hotel suite, Dotcast (founded by the technologists who created the ICTV cable platform) claims to be on the verge of rolling out a national system. Meanwhile, SpectraRep--a DTV bandwidth broker--showcased its services in several convention hall venues, but stressed that its local orientation doesn't need hundreds of DTV stations, just ones in markets where its customers want to deliver data.
Underlying all this posturing, of course, is the never-ending question of where those local DTV markets will be. Nearly 190 DTV stations are on the air, mostly transmitting part-time programming or simulcasts of their analog schedules. Nonetheless, NAB and the Consumer Electronics Association are preparing to launch a campaign in selected markets this fall to promote consumer awareness and attention to DTV. Details, including the target towns and budget, are still being worked out.
The two associations, along with the Advanced TV Systems Committee, set up the prototypical DTV Store in a convention hall corridor to showcase more than two dozen DTV sets and set-top receivers from more than a dozen manufacturers. The displays proved that DTV sets are available. The ad hoc shop also featured digital satellite receivers and DVD players from some of the same companies. That led to considerable speculation that the DTV campaign will turn into a DVD promotional project, just in time for the next holiday season.
Skepticism aside, the DTV outlook, as gleaned from the NAB convention halls, looks cloudier than ever. Cable and satellite competition is growing, as evidenced by the growing corps of technoids from those industries who prowled the NAB corridors. Even the pronouncement by moviemaker George Lucas that he won't ever shoot film again, opting instead for digital video tools, carried a mixed message. Although it offered hope to the all-digital agenda of Sony, his benefactor, and other hardware makers, the transition from film to pure video raised other concerns--not the least of which is the controversy about an all-electronic "digital cinema." The nation's theater owners already are on the warpath about the cost and prospects for that option. It was yet another reminder that the non-broadcasting NAB is increasingly about the looming overhaul in the distribution and display industries.
To further complicate the Las Vegas agenda, alternative viewing options, including streaming media, were omnipresent. Streaming has earned its share of critics and cynicism lately, especially as broadband deployment--the optimal distribution tool--stumbles ahead. Nonetheless, it is part of a growing roster of video alternatives that compete (and sometimes collaborate) with the conventional broadcasting business.
Which means more challenges for those who are still hanging on to their DTV dreams.
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